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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongSheffield United v Lincoln City3–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.65510 Oct 2026
  2. RightPreston North End v Millwall0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.57810 Oct 2026
  3. RightMiddlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.47310 Oct 2026
  4. WrongDerby County v Wrexham1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.78210 Oct 2026
  5. WrongBolton Wanderers v Stoke City1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.72410 Oct 2026
  6. RightBlackburn Rovers v Cardiff City2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.38110 Oct 2026
  7. RightSunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion0–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.37010 Oct 2026
  8. RightIpswich Town v Fulham2–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43910 Oct 2026
  9. RightChelsea v AFC Bournemouth5–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39010 Oct 2026
  10. WrongAston Villa v Brentford2–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.76610 Oct 2026
  11. WrongAl Hazem v Neom SC1–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.74110 Oct 2026
  12. WrongTSG Hoffenheim v Hamburg SV2–3
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 62%Result Away winBrier 1.11710 Oct 2026
  13. WrongSC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.86110 Oct 2026
  14. RightMainz v Bayer Leverkusen3–4
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.53010 Oct 2026
  15. WrongFC Augsburg v Bayern Munich2–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.84510 Oct 2026
  16. Wrong1. FC Union Berlin v SV Elversberg1–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.78910 Oct 2026
  17. RightSamsunspor v Trabzonspor0–3
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.41510 Oct 2026
  18. WrongAlanyaspor v Erzurum BB0–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 58%Result DrawBrier 0.93210 Oct 2026
  19. WrongVirtus Entella v Juve Stabia1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.81710 Oct 2026
  20. WrongSudtirol v Ascoli0–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.80210 Oct 2026
  21. RightEmpoli v Palermo2–4
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.59210 Oct 2026
  22. RightBenevento v Cesena2–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50510 Oct 2026
  23. WrongGenoa v Fiorentina2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.74410 Oct 2026
  24. WrongNantes v Stade de Reims0–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Away win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.85210 Oct 2026
  25. RightClermont Foot v Red Star FC 932–3
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.57210 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.