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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongRemo v Grêmio1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.7807 Oct 2026
  2. WrongRed Bull Bragantino v Mirassol1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.8097 Oct 2026
  3. RightInternacional v Corinthians2–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.5707 Oct 2026
  4. WrongChicago Fire FC v Vancouver Whitecaps3–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.7626 Oct 2026
  5. WrongBanfield v Rosario Central1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.7465 Oct 2026
  6. WrongVélez Sarsfield v Platense2–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.7425 Oct 2026
  7. RightEstudiantes de La Plata v Gimnasia (Mendoza)3–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3505 Oct 2026
  8. WrongDeportivo Riestra v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 43%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.6355 Oct 2026
  9. RightCórdoba v Tenerife3–2
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.5365 Oct 2026
  10. RightAtlético-MG v Red Bull Bragantino1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41229 Sept 2026
  11. WrongNewell's Old Boys v Lanús0–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.71129 Sept 2026
  12. WrongAtlético Tucumán v Barracas Central2–3
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Draw at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.77829 Sept 2026
  13. RightDefensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo3–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 42%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.51229 Sept 2026
  14. WrongCD Sabadell v FC Andorra0–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.94029 Sept 2026
  15. RightCádiz v Leganés4–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.62729 Sept 2026
  16. RightAlmería v Burgos2–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35929 Sept 2026
  17. WrongWigan Athletic v Mansfield Town0–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.78229 Sept 2026
  18. WrongReading v Bradford City1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.89829 Sept 2026
  19. RightLuton Town v Doncaster Rovers3–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52929 Sept 2026
  20. RightLeyton Orient v Plymouth Argyle0–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.46629 Sept 2026
  21. WrongBurton Albion v Huddersfield Town1–3
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.66129 Sept 2026
  22. RightAlbacete v Eibar1–3
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 57%Result Away winBrier 0.28129 Sept 2026
  23. WrongIndependiente Rivadavia v Gimnasia La Plata1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 55%Result DrawBrier 0.94629 Sept 2026
  24. RightBoca Juniors v Unión (Santa Fe)3–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34529 Sept 2026
  25. WrongSão Paulo v Santos1–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.75129 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.