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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightParma v Genoa2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.58220 Sept 2026
  2. WrongLeeds United v Crystal Palace0–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.87220 Sept 2026
  3. RightAFC Bournemouth v Liverpool0–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.53920 Sept 2026
  4. RightManchester City v Sunderland5–3
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29720 Sept 2026
  5. WrongFC Twente v PSV Eindhoven3–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.88820 Sept 2026
  6. WrongNorwich City v Bolton Wanderers3–4
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 61%Result Away winBrier 1.10320 Sept 2026
  7. RightGetafe v Málaga1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.35420 Sept 2026
  8. RightWolverhampton Wanderers v West Bromwich Albion1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45920 Sept 2026
  9. WrongFiorentina v Napoli1–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.83220 Sept 2026
  10. RightFeyenoord Rotterdam v FC Utrecht5–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.24920 Sept 2026
  11. RightCelta Vigo v Racing Santander5–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50019 Sept 2026
  12. WrongNottingham Forest v Coventry City0–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.89519 Sept 2026
  13. WrongAS Roma v Internazionale2–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.85619 Sept 2026
  14. RightParis FC v Strasbourg2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36419 Sept 2026
  15. WrongC.D. Nacional v FC Famalicao0–4
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.68219 Sept 2026
  16. WrongWrexham v Southampton2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.72519 Sept 2026
  17. WrongQueens Park Rangers v Preston North End2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.74219 Sept 2026
  18. RightLincoln City v Swansea City1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.59719 Sept 2026
  19. WrongBirmingham City v Middlesbrough2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.81819 Sept 2026
  20. WrongAthletic Club v Alavés0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.80019 Sept 2026
  21. WrongSheffield Wednesday v Stockport County0–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.78019 Sept 2026
  22. WrongLuton Town v Bradford City0–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.77219 Sept 2026
  23. RightWigan Athletic v Wycombe Wanderers0–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.39819 Sept 2026
  24. WrongLeyton Orient v Stevenage1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.84919 Sept 2026
  25. WrongBlackpool v Plymouth Argyle2–4
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.82319 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.