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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightPeterborough United v Doncaster Rovers0–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.60819 Sept 2026
  2. WrongPortsmouth v Blackburn Rovers2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.75319 Sept 2026
  3. RightEverton v Ipswich Town1–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.30819 Sept 2026
  4. WrongBrighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal3–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.64419 Sept 2026
  5. WrongBurnley v Derby County1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 50%Result DrawBrier 0.82819 Sept 2026
  6. RightNewcastle United v Hull City2–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.59819 Sept 2026
  7. WrongWerder Bremen v FC Augsburg3–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.60119 Sept 2026
  8. RightBorussia Mönchengladbach v Mainz3–4
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.33319 Sept 2026
  9. RightUdinese v Cagliari0–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 35%Result Away winBrier 0.63019 Sept 2026
  10. WrongBologna v Torino1–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.70919 Sept 2026
  11. WrongOsasuna v Rayo Vallecano1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.78019 Sept 2026
  12. WrongMillwall v West Ham United2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.88219 Sept 2026
  13. RightCardiff City v Charlton Athletic3–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.48219 Sept 2026
  14. RightStoke City v Sheffield United2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.38019 Sept 2026
  15. WrongBarnsley v Leicester City1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.85919 Sept 2026
  16. WrongTottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa2–3
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.97619 Sept 2026
  17. WrongEspanyol v Elche1–3
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.81718 Sept 2026
  18. RightBristol City v Watford1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.46318 Sept 2026
  19. RightBrentford v Chelsea3–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.35218 Sept 2026
  20. RightMonza v Sassuolo2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.59518 Sept 2026
  21. RightAS Monaco v Lens2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33718 Sept 2026
  22. RightFC Groningen v PEC Zwolle3–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58818 Sept 2026
  23. RightVfL Wolfsburg v SV Darmstadt 985–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.38918 Sept 2026
  24. WrongMálaga v Villarreal1–3
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 34%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.65817 Sept 2026
  25. RightReal Betis v Getafe1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41017 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.