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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongLe Mans v Lens2–2
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.83813 Sept 2026
  2. RightPEC Zwolle v Feyenoord Rotterdam0–7
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.45713 Sept 2026
  3. RightLevante v Barcelona2–4
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 57%Result Away winBrier 0.27913 Sept 2026
  4. RightCoventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion0–5
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.59913 Sept 2026
  5. WrongCelta Vigo v Málaga1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 43%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.67313 Sept 2026
  6. RightSheffield United v Wolverhampton Wanderers0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.58713 Sept 2026
  7. WrongExcelsior v FC Utrecht1–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.89813 Sept 2026
  8. RightRacing Santander v Alavés2–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.57412 Sept 2026
  9. WrongWest Bromwich Albion v Queens Park Rangers1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.68512 Sept 2026
  10. RightDerby County v Birmingham City1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.47112 Sept 2026
  11. RightBolton Wanderers v Cardiff City1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58512 Sept 2026
  12. WrongLeyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers2–3
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.76212 Sept 2026
  13. RightSevilla v Valencia1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39711 Sept 2026
  14. RightWest Ham United v Wrexham6–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.47011 Sept 2026
  15. WrongAZ Alkmaar v Willem II1–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 69%Result DrawBrier 1.20111 Sept 2026
  16. RightStevenage v Luton Town2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56410 Sept 2026
  17. WrongCharlton Athletic v Queens Park Rangers0–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.7889 Sept 2026
  18. RightNorwich City v Birmingham City2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.5039 Sept 2026
  19. WrongDerby County v West Bromwich Albion0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.5979 Sept 2026
  20. WrongBolton Wanderers v West Ham United2–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6808 Sept 2026
  21. WrongWrexham v Burnley1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9298 Sept 2026
  22. RightWatford v Preston North End2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3578 Sept 2026
  23. RightSouthampton v Swansea City3–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4828 Sept 2026
  24. WrongCardiff City v Stoke City1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9308 Sept 2026
  25. WrongBlackburn Rovers v Sheffield United1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.7158 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.