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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongTSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus0–0
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.8716 Nov 2026
  2. RightGaziantep FK v Kasimpasa0–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.4016 Nov 2026
  3. RightCruzeiro v Bahia3–2
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3745 Nov 2026
  4. RightGimnasia La Plata v Belgrano (Córdoba)2–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5725 Nov 2026
  5. RightPalmeiras v Remo6–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 69%Result Home winBrier 0.1545 Nov 2026
  6. RightBenfica v Lech Poznan3–1
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.2305 Nov 2026
  7. WrongSK Sturm Graz v NK Celje2–3
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.8235 Nov 2026
  8. RightPanathinaikos v CSKA Sofia2–1
    Conference LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.3175 Nov 2026
  9. WrongCeltic v Besiktas3–2
    Europa LeagueWe said Away win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.8485 Nov 2026
  10. RightCelta Vigo v Union St.-Gilloise1–2
    Europa LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.5535 Nov 2026
  11. RightHapoel Be'er v OFI Crete0–2
    Europa LeagueWe said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.6285 Nov 2026
  12. WrongBayer Leverkusen v Marseille0–1
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 64%Result Away winBrier 1.2035 Nov 2026
  13. RightAldosivi v River Plate0–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.4415 Nov 2026
  14. WrongAC Milan v Ferencvaros0–2
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.6795 Nov 2026
  15. RightSparta Prague v AFC Bournemouth1–3
    Europa LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5505 Nov 2026
  16. WrongReal Sociedad v Lyon1–1
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.7565 Nov 2026
  17. RightAnderlecht v RB Salzburg2–0
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.3195 Nov 2026
  18. WrongCrystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim1–1
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9025 Nov 2026
  19. RightBotafogo v Atlético-MG1–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.5485 Nov 2026
  20. WrongSão Paulo v Corinthians0–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.8404 Nov 2026
  21. WrongAthletico Paranaense v Vasco da Gama1–3
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 55%Result Away winBrier 0.9894 Nov 2026
  22. RightFlamengo v Grêmio3–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 69%Result Home winBrier 0.1494 Nov 2026
  23. RightBorussia Dortmund v Real Betis2–1
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4694 Nov 2026
  24. RightRB Leipzig v Manchester City2–3
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.5684 Nov 2026
  25. WrongFC Porto v Napoli4–1
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.6984 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.