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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightBristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers1–2
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5724 Nov 2026
  2. WrongPSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge1–2
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6444 Nov 2026
  3. RightLens v Como1–9
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.5304 Nov 2026
  4. RightSlavia Prague v Arsenal1–2
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 56%Result Away winBrier 0.2984 Nov 2026
  5. WrongWrexham v Middlesbrough2–0
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.8584 Nov 2026
  6. RightOxford United v Reading2–0
    League OneWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.6084 Nov 2026
  7. WrongCardiff City v West Ham United3–3
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.8354 Nov 2026
  8. WrongFenerbahce v Liverpool3–2
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.7834 Nov 2026
  9. RightAEK Athens v Real Madrid2–3
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.5574 Nov 2026
  10. WrongStade Rennais v Olympiacos0–0
    Europa LeagueWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.7224 Nov 2026
  11. RightInternacional v Coritiba1–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3624 Nov 2026
  12. RightChapecoense v Mirassol1–2
    Brazil Serie AWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.5953 Nov 2026
  13. WrongBodo/Glimt v Lille0–0
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 0.9993 Nov 2026
  14. RightBarcelona v Aston Villa3–0
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3533 Nov 2026
  15. WrongAtlético Madrid v Bayern Munich0–2
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.6293 Nov 2026
  16. RightManchester United v AS Roma3–2
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.6083 Nov 2026
  17. WrongFeyenoord Rotterdam v Internazionale0–3
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.7183 Nov 2026
  18. RightBirmingham City v Millwall3–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4683 Nov 2026
  19. WrongWest Bromwich Albion v Southampton1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.7443 Nov 2026
  20. RightVillarreal v Paris Saint-Germain0–6
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.3483 Nov 2026
  21. RightLASK Linz v Slovan Bratislava4–0
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 67%Result Home winBrier 0.1633 Nov 2026
  22. WrongCharlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers0–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.7323 Nov 2026
  23. WrongBlackburn Rovers v Stoke City1–2
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.8193 Nov 2026
  24. RightPreston North End v Sheffield United2–3
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.5443 Nov 2026
  25. WrongQueens Park Rangers v Burnley1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.8543 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.