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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightTigre v Sarmiento (Junín)1–0
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.4627 Nov 2026
  2. WrongDunkerque v US Quevilly0–3
    Coupe De FranceWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.6746 Nov 2026
  3. WrongVitória v Fluminense0–3
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.7226 Nov 2026
  4. WrongUnión (Santa Fe) v Vélez Sarsfield2–0
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.6936 Nov 2026
  5. RightIndependiente v Deportivo Riestra2–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4426 Nov 2026
  6. WrongSan Lorenzo v Platense0–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Draw at 34%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.7016 Nov 2026
  7. RightFC Famalicao v Arouca1–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5836 Nov 2026
  8. RightEverton v Coventry City3–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3926 Nov 2026
  9. WrongDerby County v Bolton Wanderers3–1
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.8526 Nov 2026
  10. WrongSevilla v Alavés0–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.7566 Nov 2026
  11. WrongVenezia v Udinese2–1
    Serie AWe said Away win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.9796 Nov 2026
  12. RightStandard Liege v Waasland-Beveren3–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.3056 Nov 2026
  13. RightToulouse v Strasbourg3–1
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.5726 Nov 2026
  14. RightBristol Rovers v Cambridge United2–0
    Fa CupWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.5216 Nov 2026
  15. WrongHamburg SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach3–1
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.6396 Nov 2026
  16. WrongAscoli v Palermo1–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.8096 Nov 2026
  17. RightAS Nancy Lorraine v Sochaux1–0
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4246 Nov 2026
  18. RightDunkerque v Guingamp3–0
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5606 Nov 2026
  19. WrongWillem II v PEC Zwolle1–1
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.8256 Nov 2026
  20. WrongGrenoble v Stade de Reims3–2
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.9556 Nov 2026
  21. WrongMontpellier v Metz2–3
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.9736 Nov 2026
  22. WrongDijon FCO v Red Star FC 931–0
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.6966 Nov 2026
  23. WrongBoulogne v Annecy3–0
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.7866 Nov 2026
  24. RightBarracas Central v Racing Club2–0
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5386 Nov 2026
  25. RightDynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–0
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.3336 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.