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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightDerby County v Norwich City0–4
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.4603 Nov 2026
  2. WrongWatford v Lincoln City1–0
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.7313 Nov 2026
  3. WrongHuddersfield Town v Luton Town1–1
    League OneWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.8583 Nov 2026
  4. RightPortsmouth v Swansea City3–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4843 Nov 2026
  5. WrongShakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP0–1
    Champions LeagueWe said Home win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.7683 Nov 2026
  6. WrongGalatasaray v VfB Stuttgart2–0
    Champions LeagueWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.6593 Nov 2026
  7. RightIndependiente Rivadavia v Banfield3–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.3332 Nov 2026
  8. RightAtlético Tucumán v Argentinos Juniors1–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5812 Nov 2026
  9. RightRed Bull Bragantino v Santos2–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.5142 Nov 2026
  10. RightPlatense v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)2–0
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5472 Nov 2026
  11. WrongDefensa y Justicia v Independiente1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7232 Nov 2026
  12. WrongGil Vicente v Vitória de Guimaraes0–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.6902 Nov 2026
  13. RightBenfica v Alverca1–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 71%Result Home winBrier 0.1262 Nov 2026
  14. RightStade de Reims v Sochaux2–0
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.3152 Nov 2026
  15. WrongNewcastle United v Everton0–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.8512 Nov 2026
  16. RightMallorca v Cádiz2–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.2452 Nov 2026
  17. RightRed Star FC 93 v AS Nancy Lorraine1–4
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5732 Nov 2026
  18. RightDeportivo v Osasuna2–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4362 Nov 2026
  19. WrongLorient v Brest0–2
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.7042 Nov 2026
  20. WrongAtalanta v Parma0–3
    Serie AWe said Home win at 62%Result Away winBrier 1.2002 Nov 2026
  21. RightSassuolo v Fiorentina2–4
    Serie AWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.5522 Nov 2026
  22. RightReal Valladolid v Leganés4–3
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3822 Nov 2026
  23. WrongGenclerbirligi v Alanyaspor5–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.6862 Nov 2026
  24. WrongReal Oviedo v Las Palmas2–3
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.9612 Nov 2026
  25. RightPortland Timbers v Houston Dynamo FC3–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.5712 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.