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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightMachida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka3–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31218 Oct 2026
  2. WrongFagiano Okayama v Vissel Kobe0–3
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.66218 Oct 2026
  3. RightCruz Azul v FC Juárez5–0
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.18818 Oct 2026
  4. WrongSeattle Sounders FC v CF Montréal1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 58%Result DrawBrier 0.93218 Oct 2026
  5. WrongPortland Timbers v Colorado Rapids0–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.86518 Oct 2026
  6. WrongSan Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 50%Result DrawBrier 0.86618 Oct 2026
  7. WrongLA Galaxy v San Diego FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.83318 Oct 2026
  8. WrongToluca v Atlético de San Luis1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 58%Result DrawBrier 1.03718 Oct 2026
  9. WrongLeón v América3–5
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.65518 Oct 2026
  10. RightSporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake1–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54218 Oct 2026
  11. RightAustin FC v Vancouver Whitecaps1–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.32717 Oct 2026
  12. WrongHouston Dynamo FC v FC Dallas2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.81017 Oct 2026
  13. RightSão Paulo v Vasco da Gama1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41017 Oct 2026
  14. RightAtlanta United FC v Inter Miami CF1–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.34317 Oct 2026
  15. WrongRed Bull New York v Toronto FC0–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.81117 Oct 2026
  16. WrongNew York City FC v LAFC1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.79017 Oct 2026
  17. RightNew England Revolution v Chicago Fire FC1–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.47617 Oct 2026
  18. RightOrlando City SC v D.C. United4–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31317 Oct 2026
  19. WrongGuadalajara v Tigres UANL1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.88017 Oct 2026
  20. RightVélez Sarsfield v Gimnasia (Mendoza)1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37417 Oct 2026
  21. RightAtlético Tucumán v Rosario Central2–3
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 42%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.51517 Oct 2026
  22. WrongSantos v Querétaro5–0
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.78917 Oct 2026
  23. RightAthletico-PR v Palmeiras0–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.57317 Oct 2026
  24. RightAtlético-MG v Coritiba1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.23017 Oct 2026
  25. RightBotafogo v Chapecoense1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.25117 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.