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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongSpVgg Greuther Fürth v TSV Eintracht Braunschweig2–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.65417 Oct 2026
  2. RightVfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim 18463–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29717 Oct 2026
  3. RightKaiserslautern v VfL Bochum2–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.46017 Oct 2026
  4. RightErzurum BB v Eyupspor2–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.24417 Oct 2026
  5. WrongKashiwa Reysol v Nagoya Grampus1–3
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 62%Result Away winBrier 1.12117 Oct 2026
  6. WrongMito Hollyhock v Urawa Red Diamonds0–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.73717 Oct 2026
  7. RightKashima Antlers v V-Varen Nagasaki2–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.28517 Oct 2026
  8. WrongCerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale2–4
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.74017 Oct 2026
  9. RightTokyo Verdy 1969 v FC Tokyo0–4
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 61%Result Away winBrier 0.23417 Oct 2026
  10. WrongJEF United Ichihara-Chiba v Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.78017 Oct 2026
  11. RightSanfrecce Hiroshima v Kyoto Sanga3–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 69%Result Home winBrier 0.14317 Oct 2026
  12. WrongShimizu S-Pulse v Gamba Osaka2–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result DrawBrier 0.79717 Oct 2026
  13. WrongAtlante v Pumas UNAM1–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.63317 Oct 2026
  14. WrongTijuana v Puebla0–0
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.79617 Oct 2026
  15. RightNecaxa v Atlas0–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.41017 Oct 2026
  16. RightBoca Juniors v Talleres (Córdoba)2–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.31117 Oct 2026
  17. RightMirassol v Internacional2–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52316 Oct 2026
  18. WrongDefensa y Justicia v Instituto (Córdoba)0–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.74616 Oct 2026
  19. WrongDeportivo v Levante1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.85916 Oct 2026
  20. RightBurnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.58816 Oct 2026
  21. WrongLe Mans v Toulouse0–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.63716 Oct 2026
  22. RightFrosinone v Sassuolo4–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54116 Oct 2026
  23. WrongHellas Verona v Catanzaro2–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 60%Result DrawBrier 1.01516 Oct 2026
  24. RightEintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne1–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.51716 Oct 2026
  25. WrongLeganés v Córdoba0–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.63916 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.