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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightExcelsior v Go Ahead Eagles0–1
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.4627 Nov 2026
  2. RightValencia v Real Madrid0–3
    La LigaWe said Away win at 63%Result Away winBrier 0.2137 Nov 2026
  3. RightAS Roma v Sassuolo3–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 73%Result Home winBrier 0.1167 Nov 2026
  4. WrongRAAL La Louvière v Cercle Brugge KSV0–1
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.7757 Nov 2026
  5. WrongAntwerp v Lommel SK2–2
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.8847 Nov 2026
  6. RightHertha Berlin v VfL Wolfsburg2–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5607 Nov 2026
  7. WrongPau v Nantes0–2
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.8147 Nov 2026
  8. RightSaint-Étienne v Stade Laval2–0
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 71%Result Home winBrier 0.1317 Nov 2026
  9. WrongBenevento v US Avellino1–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.8657 Nov 2026
  10. WrongGimnasia (Mendoza) v Independiente Rivadavia1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.7607 Nov 2026
  11. WrongTalleres (Córdoba) v Estudiantes de La Plata1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7017 Nov 2026
  12. RightAJ Auxerre v Paris FC0–1
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.6027 Nov 2026
  13. WrongAlverca v Casa Pia1–1
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.7427 Nov 2026
  14. WrongADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam3–1
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.6807 Nov 2026
  15. WrongAberdeen v Hibernian0–4
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 34%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.6517 Nov 2026
  16. RightVfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen1–0
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3577 Nov 2026
  17. WrongLeganés v Albacete1–3
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.8007 Nov 2026
  18. RightCórdoba v Ceuta3–0
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.3107 Nov 2026
  19. WrongOsasuna v Athletic Club1–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7017 Nov 2026
  20. WrongNottingham Forest v Manchester City3–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Away win at 52%Result Home winBrier 1.0287 Nov 2026
  21. RightOH Leuven v KV Mechelen2–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.5827 Nov 2026
  22. RightParma v Bologna1–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.3587 Nov 2026
  23. WrongMantova v Hellas Verona0–0
    Serie BWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.8277 Nov 2026
  24. WrongGoztepe v Istanbul Basaksehir1–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 64%Result Away winBrier 1.1697 Nov 2026
  25. RightGalatasaray v Amed SFK4–3
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3597 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.