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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded150
Top pick right46%
Mean Brier0.630
  1. WrongCelta Vigo v Málaga1–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.67313 Sept 2026
  2. RightSheffield United v Wolverhampton Wanderers0–1
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.58713 Sept 2026
  3. WrongExcelsior v FC Utrecht1–2
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.89813 Sept 2026
  4. RightRacing Santander v Alavés2–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.57412 Sept 2026
  5. WrongWest Bromwich Albion v Queens Park Rangers1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.68512 Sept 2026
  6. RightDerby County v Birmingham City1–2
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.47112 Sept 2026
  7. RightBolton Wanderers v Cardiff City1–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58512 Sept 2026
  8. WrongLeyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers2–3
    League OneWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.76212 Sept 2026
  9. RightSevilla v Valencia1–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39711 Sept 2026
  10. RightWest Ham United v Wrexham6–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.47011 Sept 2026
  11. WrongAZ Alkmaar v Willem II1–1
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 69%Result DrawBrier 1.20111 Sept 2026
  12. RightStevenage v Luton Town2–1
    League OneWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56410 Sept 2026
  13. WrongCharlton Athletic v Queens Park Rangers0–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.7889 Sept 2026
  14. RightNorwich City v Birmingham City2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.5039 Sept 2026
  15. WrongDerby County v West Bromwich Albion0–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.5979 Sept 2026
  16. WrongBolton Wanderers v West Ham United2–3
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6808 Sept 2026
  17. WrongWrexham v Burnley1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9298 Sept 2026
  18. RightWatford v Preston North End2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3578 Sept 2026
  19. RightSouthampton v Swansea City3–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4828 Sept 2026
  20. WrongCardiff City v Stoke City1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9308 Sept 2026
  21. WrongBlackburn Rovers v Sheffield United1–2
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.7158 Sept 2026
  22. WrongElche v Real Sociedad2–3
    La LigaWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6637 Sept 2026
  23. WrongEstoril v Arouca0–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.7407 Sept 2026
  24. WrongGetafe v Celta Vigo1–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.7107 Sept 2026
  25. WrongEspanyol v Sevilla1–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.8516 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.

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