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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongFortuna Sittard v Telstar2–2
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.7807 Nov 2026
  2. WrongC.D. Nacional v Académico de Viseu1–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.6827 Nov 2026
  3. WrongCádiz v Real Oviedo1–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.6627 Nov 2026
  4. WrongPreston North End v Southampton1–0
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.8407 Nov 2026
  5. WrongFleetwood Town v Rochdale1–2
    Fa CupWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.8107 Nov 2026
  6. RightKVC Westerlo v Royal Charleroi SC1–5
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.5497 Nov 2026
  7. RightSt Johnstone v Dundee2–1
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5537 Nov 2026
  8. WrongEspanyol v Deportivo0–0
    La LigaWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7087 Nov 2026
  9. RightBirmingham City v Swansea City2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.2547 Nov 2026
  10. RightQueens Park Rangers v Lincoln City2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4257 Nov 2026
  11. WrongDundee United v Motherwell1–1
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.8657 Nov 2026
  12. RightWest Bromwich Albion v Millwall3–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.5897 Nov 2026
  13. WrongWatford v Middlesbrough0–0
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.8897 Nov 2026
  14. RightCardiff City v Burnley5–4
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4667 Nov 2026
  15. WrongCharlton Athletic v Sheffield United2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.7527 Nov 2026
  16. RightArsenal v Hull City1–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 74%Result Home winBrier 0.1107 Nov 2026
  17. WrongBlackburn Rovers v West Ham United2–1
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.9647 Nov 2026
  18. WrongFulham v Newcastle United1–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.8077 Nov 2026
  19. WrongSC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt2–2
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.7847 Nov 2026
  20. RightBorussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg2–1
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 72%Result Home winBrier 0.1257 Nov 2026
  21. RightRB Leipzig v FC Augsburg5–2
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 76%Result Home winBrier 0.0917 Nov 2026
  22. RightMainz v Bayern Munich1–2
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 75%Result Away winBrier 0.0977 Nov 2026
  23. RightCesena v Catanzaro1–0
    Serie BWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4787 Nov 2026
  24. WrongTorino v Lecce1–1
    Serie AWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.7877 Nov 2026
  25. WrongPadova v Empoli2–2
    Serie BWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.7357 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.