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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightRAAL La Louvière v Club Brugge1–4
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.46910 Oct 2026
  2. RightCaykur Rizespor v Fenerbahce0–3
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54710 Oct 2026
  3. RightInternazionale v Parma3–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 76%Result Home winBrier 0.08510 Oct 2026
  4. RightLille v Le Havre AC1–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36310 Oct 2026
  5. WrongVicenza v Pisa0–3
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.61310 Oct 2026
  6. WrongAl Ettifaq v Al Khaleej1–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.82710 Oct 2026
  7. WrongGo Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam3–3
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 1.05410 Oct 2026
  8. WrongCeuta v CD Sabadell1–2
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.68710 Oct 2026
  9. WrongAlavés v Atlético Madrid1–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.67610 Oct 2026
  10. WrongCercle Brugge KSV v Anderlecht1–2
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 35%Result Away winBrier 0.63010 Oct 2026
  11. RightRangers v Kilmarnock3–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.41710 Oct 2026
  12. RightHeart of Midlothian v St Mirren5–0
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33010 Oct 2026
  13. WrongFalkirk v Dundee1–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 36%Result Away winBrier 0.63210 Oct 2026
  14. RightDundee United v Hibernian1–0
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.57710 Oct 2026
  15. WrongWycombe Wanderers v Luton Town1–4
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.69510 Oct 2026
  16. RightStockport County v Barnsley3–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.28010 Oct 2026
  17. RightStevenage v Wigan Athletic1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.32510 Oct 2026
  18. WrongMilton Keynes Dons v Reading1–5
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.65510 Oct 2026
  19. RightMansfield Town v Bromley2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.28810 Oct 2026
  20. WrongLeicester City v Peterborough United1–3
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.93910 Oct 2026
  21. WrongHuddersfield Town v Sheffield Wednesday2–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.81610 Oct 2026
  22. RightDoncaster Rovers v Burton Albion1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.49710 Oct 2026
  23. RightCambridge United v Blackpool1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39110 Oct 2026
  24. WrongBradford City v Leyton Orient0–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.77010 Oct 2026
  25. WrongWatford v Burnley0–4
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.90810 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.