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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightAcadémico de Viseu v Estoril2–1
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41510 Oct 2026
  2. WrongAjax Amsterdam v NEC Nijmegen1–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.97910 Oct 2026
  3. WrongRC Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II4–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.64210 Oct 2026
  4. RightReal Madrid v Villarreal1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.23510 Oct 2026
  5. WrongZulte-Waregem v KAA Gent0–2
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 36%Result Away winBrier 0.61910 Oct 2026
  6. RightRacing Genk v KV Kortrijk3–0
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 68%Result Home winBrier 0.16010 Oct 2026
  7. WrongBarracas Central v Huracán2–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.75710 Oct 2026
  8. RightParis Saint-Germain v Le Mans3–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.51010 Oct 2026
  9. WrongLorient v Paris FC1–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.64510 Oct 2026
  10. RightBrest v Angers5–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58010 Oct 2026
  11. WrongAS Monaco v Toulouse2–2
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.88110 Oct 2026
  12. RightNapoli v Frosinone3–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.49610 Oct 2026
  13. RightChicago Fire FC v New York City FC2–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43910 Oct 2026
  14. Wrong1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg4–4
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.92410 Oct 2026
  15. RightAl Hilal v Al Ittihad3–2
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39610 Oct 2026
  16. WrongFortuna Sittard v FC Twente1–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.91610 Oct 2026
  17. RightSaint-Étienne v Rodez Aveyron2–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 67%Result Home winBrier 0.16610 Oct 2026
  18. WrongArezzo v Cremonese0–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.83510 Oct 2026
  19. RightToronto FC v CF Montréal2–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.28210 Oct 2026
  20. RightMaritimo v FC Porto1–2
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 61%Result Away winBrier 0.23410 Oct 2026
  21. RightFeyenoord Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar2–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41210 Oct 2026
  22. RightRB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt6–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 67%Result Home winBrier 0.16210 Oct 2026
  23. RightEldense v Córdoba2–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40410 Oct 2026
  24. RightBarcelona v Getafe3–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 88%Result Home winBrier 0.02510 Oct 2026
  25. WrongManchester United v Tottenham Hotspur1–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 68%Result DrawBrier 1.12410 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.