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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightCagliari v Frosinone1–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.6127 Nov 2026
  2. WrongPisa v Sudtirol2–2
    Serie BWe said Home win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.9357 Nov 2026
  3. RightJuve Stabia v Arezzo1–0
    Serie BWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3507 Nov 2026
  4. WrongSamsunspor v Konyaspor1–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.7407 Nov 2026
  5. WrongClermont Foot v Rodez Aveyron1–0
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.7447 Nov 2026
  6. WrongMálaga v Racing Santander1–2
    La LigaWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.9007 Nov 2026
  7. RightBurgos v RC Celta Fortuna2–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3947 Nov 2026
  8. WrongWrexham v Wolverhampton Wanderers1–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.7657 Nov 2026
  9. WrongPortsmouth v Stoke City1–2
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.9037 Nov 2026
  10. RightBristol City v Norwich City0–5
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.5017 Nov 2026
  11. RightLeeds United v Tottenham Hotspur1–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4767 Nov 2026
  12. WrongVfL Osnabruck v Kaiserslautern0–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.8007 Nov 2026
  13. WrongHolstein Kiel v Arminia Bielefeld1–2
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.8417 Nov 2026
  14. Right1. FC Nürnberg v SV Darmstadt 982–0
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.2337 Nov 2026
  15. RightEyupspor v Kocaelispor0–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.3787 Nov 2026
  16. RightKashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale2–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3437 Nov 2026
  17. RightFC Tokyo v Kashima Antlers2–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.1987 Nov 2026
  18. WrongAvispa Fukuoka v V-Varen Nagasaki1–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.7947 Nov 2026
  19. WrongNagoya Grampus v Kyoto Sanga0–2
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.7467 Nov 2026
  20. WrongYokohama F. Marinos v Fagiano Okayama1–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.9367 Nov 2026
  21. RightShimizu S-Pulse v Tokyo Verdy 19690–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.5237 Nov 2026
  22. WrongAtlante v Santos0–2
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.6167 Nov 2026
  23. WrongAtlético de San Luis v FC Juárez0–1
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 58%Result Away winBrier 1.0637 Nov 2026
  24. WrongNecaxa v Tijuana1–0
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.6377 Nov 2026
  25. WrongBanfield v Atlético Tucumán2–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7047 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.