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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightVicenza v Cremonese1–4
    Serie BWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.4198 Nov 2026
  2. RightSint-Truidense v Zulte-Waregem4–1
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3718 Nov 2026
  3. RightBesiktas v Genclerbirligi3–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 79%Result Home winBrier 0.0718 Nov 2026
  4. RightVitória de Guimaraes v FC Porto1–2
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.4658 Nov 2026
  5. RightUnion St.-Gilloise v Racing Genk1–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.2068 Nov 2026
  6. RightVillarreal v Getafe2–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.1978 Nov 2026
  7. WrongSporting Gijón v Real Valladolid1–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.9028 Nov 2026
  8. WrongCelta Vigo v Levante0–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.8178 Nov 2026
  9. RightInternazionale v Como2–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.3788 Nov 2026
  10. WrongManchester United v Aston Villa4–4
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.8088 Nov 2026
  11. RightSC Freiburg v 1. FC Union Berlin2–0
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 77%Result Home winBrier 0.0858 Nov 2026
  12. WrongCarrarese v Sampdoria0–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.9608 Nov 2026
  13. WrongLe Mans v AS Monaco1–1
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.8538 Nov 2026
  14. RightBrest v Lyon2–0
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.4488 Nov 2026
  15. RightLe Havre AC v Lorient0–2
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.4518 Nov 2026
  16. RightAngers v Nice0–2
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.6208 Nov 2026
  17. RightCeltic v Kilmarnock1–0
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 69%Result Home winBrier 0.1448 Nov 2026
  18. RightSC Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven2–5
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 71%Result Away winBrier 0.1278 Nov 2026
  19. RightAZ Alkmaar v FC Groningen4–3
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.2408 Nov 2026
  20. WrongSanta Clara v Gil Vicente1–2
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.8698 Nov 2026
  21. RightAlanyaspor v Trabzonspor0–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.3548 Nov 2026
  22. RightReal Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano1–0
    La LigaWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3518 Nov 2026
  23. WrongGirona v Almería0–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.9578 Nov 2026
  24. WrongHeart of Midlothian v Falkirk2–5
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.8968 Nov 2026
  25. RightKAA Gent v KV Kortrijk1–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 73%Result Home winBrier 0.1158 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.