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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightFC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen1–2
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.4768 Nov 2026
  2. RightVirtus Entella v Modena0–2
    Serie BWe said Away win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5438 Nov 2026
  3. RightMonza v Atalanta0–1
    Serie AWe said Away win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.3668 Nov 2026
  4. RightGenoa v AC Milan1–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.3648 Nov 2026
  5. RightCrystal Palace v Liverpool1–3
    Premier LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.3198 Nov 2026
  6. RightIpswich Town v AFC Bournemouth1–2
    Premier LeagueWe said Away win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.3898 Nov 2026
  7. RightBrighton & Hove Albion v Brentford2–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3508 Nov 2026
  8. WrongSunderland v Chelsea1–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.8048 Nov 2026
  9. WrongStade Rennais v Lille1–2
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.7798 Nov 2026
  10. WrongFC Twente v Ajax Amsterdam2–2
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.8088 Nov 2026
  11. WrongÇorum FK v Fenerbahce0–5
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 36%Result Away winBrier 0.6278 Nov 2026
  12. RightElche v Real Betis0–2
    La LigaWe said Away win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.4968 Nov 2026
  13. WrongClub Brugge v Anderlecht1–1
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 67%Result DrawBrier 1.0918 Nov 2026
  14. Wrong1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Hannover 962–2
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.8908 Nov 2026
  15. RightVfL Bochum v Karlsruher SC3–2
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3668 Nov 2026
  16. Right1. FC Magdeburg v St. Pauli4–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.5108 Nov 2026
  17. WrongNapoli v Lazio1–1
    Serie AWe said Home win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.7488 Nov 2026
  18. WrongHeerenveen v Feyenoord Rotterdam5–3
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.8438 Nov 2026
  19. WrongCaykur Rizespor v Erzurum BB2–1
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.6328 Nov 2026
  20. RightJEF United Ichihara-Chiba v Mito Hollyhock1–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.2718 Nov 2026
  21. WrongGamba Osaka v Cerezo Osaka2–3
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.9408 Nov 2026
  22. WrongVissel Kobe v Urawa Red Diamonds2–2
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 1.0138 Nov 2026
  23. WrongMachida Zelvia v Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.8308 Nov 2026
  24. RightLas Palmas v Eldense2–0
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4238 Nov 2026
  25. WrongPumas UNAM v América2–2
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 57%Result DrawBrier 1.0318 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.